Why Notre Dame Missed the 2025 College Football Playoff

Notre Dame threatens to take their golden football and go home.

And honestly, that’s kind of the problem here if you ask me.

The Fighting Irish were good this year. In fact, they were national-title-level good. They started 0-2 with razor-thin losses to Miami and Texas A&M, both of which ended up inside the 12-team College Football Playoff field, then ripped off 10 straight wins and spent weeks sitting comfortably in the projected bracket.

Then Selection Sunday hit, Miami jumped them, and Notre Dame found itself unlucky No. 13 – first team out. The Irish responded by saying “No thanks” to any bowl game at all and shutting down the season. Reuters+1

So how do you go from near-lock to left out?

Today I’m going to make the case that:

Notre Dame’s schedule was absolutely playoff-worthy.
Notre Dame did not make the playoff because they didn’t play – or win – a conference championship.
Notre Dame is very good…but they overplayed their great history, brand and independence.

They wanted the benefits of a marriage without the commitment.

Think of Notre Dame as that beautiful, successful woman who loves the attention, loves the dates, loves the trips…but every time the conversation turns to marriage she says, “I’m not ready for that,” and then gets mad when she doesn’t get the long-term security that comes with a ring.

Notre Dame wanted Playoff-level benefits. But they didn’t want Conference-level commitment.

I’m no Paul Finebaum or Josh Pate. I didn’t go to “On3 University.” I’m not in the committee room. I’m just a guy from Virginia who listens to hours of college football talk while I work and then goes back and watches the highlights. Tell me where I’m wrong.

I’m not Joe Friday, but I’ll still try to give you “just the facts, ma’am…or sir.”

What Actually Happened to Notre Dame This Year

Let’s set the table.

Notre Dame went 10–2, losing only to Miami and Texas A&M, both of whom made the 12-team CFP field. Reuters+1
Those two losses were close – a one-score game at Miami (27–24) and another tight one against the Aggies. Reuters
After that 0–2 start, Notre Dame stacked 10 straight wins, all by double digits, with an average margin of nearly 30 points. Reuters+1
Analytics loved them: Sagarin had the Irish as a top-3 team in his predictive rankings, right alongside the Big Ten heavies. Reuters
Week after week, the CFP rankings had Notre Dame in the field and ahead of Miami…until the final show, when Miami jumped them and grabbed the last at-large spot. Reuters+1

At the same time, chaos broke out in the ACC:

Virginia blew its chance at an automatic CFP berth by losing the ACC Championship Game to Duke, a five-loss team that was never going to be picked for the playoff. The Washington Post
That left the ACC staring at the nightmare scenario: no conference champion in the CFP under a system that guarantees spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Washington Post+1
Group of Five champs like James Madison (Sun Belt) and Tulane (American) also muscled into the field by winning their leagues. The Washington Post

So the committee had a puzzle:

Miami: 10–2, head-to-head win over Notre Dame, ACC darling.
Notre Dame: 10–2, hotter team, better metrics, but independent and not a champion of anything.

The committee leaned on head-to-head and the changing landscape of conference champions. Miami moved to No. 10. Notre Dame slid to No. 13 and became the “first team out” of the playoff. Reuters+1

That’s the on-paper explanation.

Now let’s talk about what’s really going on.

Notre Dame’s Schedule Was Playoff-Worthy

First, let’s give the Irish their flowers.

Notre Dame did not schedule cupcakes. They played a steady diet of “real” programs:

Miami, Texas A&M, USC, Pittsburgh, NC State, Boise State, Stanford, Syracuse, Navy, Purdue, Arkansas and more.

Were all of those teams elite this season? No. But almost every one of them is capable of rising up and smacking you in the mouth on the right Saturday. And Notre Dame basically handled them all after that 0–2 start.

The Irish didn’t limp to 10 wins. They steamrolled their last 10 opponents. When you’re winning every week by multiple scores in major TV windows, that looks – and feels – like a playoff team. Reuters

So when Notre Dame’s AD, Pete Bevacqua, says they’re “confused, sad and frustrated” and feel like the rug was pulled out from under them, I get it. ESPN.com

Honestly? Based on the schedule and performance, Notre Dame had a real shot to win the whole thing if they got in.

But…

The Pretty Girl Who Loves Being Single (Notre Dame’s Commitment Problem)

Here’s where that relationship metaphor comes in.

Notre Dame is like the pretty woman who:

Loves the dates.
Loves the attention.
Loves the flexibility.
Loves knowing she can walk into any room and have options.

But the minute somebody says, “Hey, are we going to actually get married or what?” she backs up and says, “I’m not built for that kind of commitment.”

That’s Notre Dame and the ACC.

In football, they’re independent.
In 24 other sports, they’re a full ACC member. ESPN.com
They play ACC teams every year thanks to their scheduling deal. ESPN.com
But when it comes to actually joining the conference as a football member and playing in the ACC Championship Game? “Nah, we’re too special for that.”

They want to date the ACC, not marry it.

They want the TV deal, the scheduling, the relationships, the exposure…but they don’t want to give up their independence, their NBC money, or their ability to schedule whoever they want across the country.

That’s fine – until it isn’t.

This year, it wasn’t.

The Politics: ACC vs. Its “Independent Partner”

When Duke upset Virginia and basically took the ACC out of the automatic CFP conversation, the league went into survival mode and started pushing one clear story:

“Miami vs. Notre Dame – no hypotheticals, just facts.”

The ACC’s official football account even posted a side-by-side comparison of Miami and Notre Dame on X (Twitter), highlighting the Hurricanes’ 27–24 win in the season opener and their identical 10–2 records. ESPN.com+1

Notre Dame’s AD responded by saying the ACC had done “permanent damage” to their relationship by campaigning so hard for Miami over the Irish, even though Notre Dame is technically in the ACC for almost every other sport. ESPN.com

Some media voices did not feel sorry for Notre Dame at all. Paul Finebaum basically called them crybabies and said this is what happens when you think you’re too good to join a conference. He argued that if Notre Dame had just joined the ACC in football like everyone’s been saying for years, they’d have been in the ACC Championship Game and almost certainly in the playoff. Newsweek

Here’s the harsh truth:

The ACC has to fight for its members first, because that’s where its TV money and long-term stability come from. ESPN.com+1
Notre Dame is not an ACC football member.
The committee explicitly values conference championships and conference status, especially now that the format guarantees spots to the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Washington Post+1

Notre Dame wanted the ACC to treat them like a spouse when – on paper – they are still just a long-term situationship.

A Kid from Virginia Watching the Drama Unfold

As someone who grew up in Virginia watching ACC football, this hits close to home.

I’m a Virginia Cavaliers fan. So watching us lose the ACC title game to Duke this year was painful enough. But then I watched that loss help create the chaos that pushed Notre Dame out of the playoff conversation entirely. The Washington Post

From my porch – metaphorically speaking – I see:

Notre Dame fans furious at both the ACC and the committee.
The ACC trying to keep its seat at the CFP money table.
James Madison and Tulane making history by sneaking in as conference champs from smaller leagues. The Washington Post

And I keep coming back to this:

Notre Dame was this close to a title run, and the one thing missing from their résumé was a conference championship.

If they’d been fully married to the ACC in football, they would’ve had a chance to settle it on the field in Charlotte. Just like Virginia did. Just like Duke did. Just like all the other grown-up programs that accepted the responsibilities that come with membership.

Instead, they chose independence and hoped their golden smile, golden helmets, golden history, and golden analytics would be enough.

The Notre Dame Brand Is Still Special (And That’s Part of the Problem)

Let’s be real: Notre Dame is still college football royalty.

I grew up watching the Fighting Irish in the late ’80s and ’90s:

Tim Brown.
Tony Rice.
Rocket Ismail.
Lou Holtz on the sideline.

That option offense, those big games, those gold helmets on a fall Saturday – those are great memories.

Even in video games, it felt special to pick Notre Dame in NCAA Football, see the team come out of the tunnel, and slap the “Play Like a Champion Today” sign before kickoff.

We love you, Notre Dame. The sport is better when you matter.

Brian Kelly helped bring the Irish back to that status, rebuilding them into a consistent national power. Marcus Freeman has taken that baton and made them look even more athletic, more physical, and more dangerous. You see backs like Jeremiyah Love hurdling defenders, upgraded quarterback play, and a defense with a nasty disposition – that’s what a modern title contender looks like. Reuters+1

If Freeman stays at Notre Dame, I truly believe he can win a national championship there.

But this season, the Irish trusted their name and numbers more than they respected the evolving playoff politics.

They thought:

“We’ll go 10–2 against a real schedule, blow people out, and the committee won’t dare leave Notre Dame out.”
“We don’t need a conference title game – we’re Notre Dame.”

This time, that gamble lost.

Could Notre Dame Have Won It All? Absolutely.

Here’s the part that stings the most if you’re an Irish fan:

I honestly believe Notre Dame could have won the whole thing this year.

They had a playoff-worthy schedule.
They had elite-level performance down the stretch.
Analytics and betting markets backed them as a true contender. Reuters+1
They had the coaching, the roster and the momentum.

But “could have won it all” and “gets a seat at the table” are not the same thing.

The system – right or wrong – says:

Conference champions get guaranteed paths.
Head-to-head matters when résumés are similar.
Politics and perception fill in the gaps the numbers can’t. Newsweek+3The Washington Post+3The Washington Post+3

Notre Dame lost to Miami in Week 1. They weren’t in any conference championship game. And when the ACC had to choose which child to fight for, it didn’t pick the one that refuses to live in the house.

Life Lesson Time: You Can’t Get Married Benefits Without Commitment

This is 7 Super Life Club, so let’s bring this home to real life for a minute.

Notre Dame is teaching all of us a hard lesson:

You can’t stay “single” forever and still expect married-level benefits.

That applies to:

Relationships – if you want loyalty, security and long-term planning, at some point you have to commit, not just date.
Business – if you want partnership perks, you eventually have to sign the contract, share the risk, and be all-in.
Health – if you want long-term results, you can’t just flirt with the gym or eat right for two weeks and then disappear.

Notre Dame chose independence. They chose flexibility. They chose to flirt with everyone and not settle down with the ACC.

That independence has real advantages – especially financially and in scheduling. But this year, the bill came due in the playoff.

If you ask me, Notre Dame’s schedule was playoff-worthy. Their team was playoff-worthy. Their performance was playoff-worthy.

But their relationship status wasn’t.

They wanted to be the pretty girl who’s “too cute for commitment” and still expects all the perks of being married. The College Football Playoff committee basically said:

“We love you, we respect your history…but if you won’t commit, don’t be shocked when the ring goes to somebody else.”

Could they have won it all? Yes.
Did they play well enough to be in the conversation? Yes.
Did they overplay the power of their name while underestimating the power of a conference championship? Also yes.

That’s why Notre Dame is at home with its golden football this postseason, watching a playoff they were good enough to win – but not committed enough to qualify for.

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